trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 14% | 0% | -11.2% |
| ≤30d | 16 | -0.0% | -9.6% | 25% | 6% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -0.0% | -9.6% | 25% | 6% | -10.4% |
| all | 29 | -3.0% | -12.2% | 31% | 3% | -11.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.2% | 3% | -11.8% |
| 10% | -20.6% | 0% | -20.2% |
| 15% | -28.3% | 0% | -27.9% |
| 20% | -35.3% | 0% | -35.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $29 | $29 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $33 | −$4 | -12% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 14 | $15 | $0 | -2% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 14 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 14 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 13 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 10 | $44 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 09 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 08 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 06 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 05 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $4 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Jun 27 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? | Apr 16 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Apr 15 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? | Mar 29 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? | Mar 25 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Greens be part of the next German government? | Mar 23 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Mar 22 | $12 | $0 | +0% |