Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:01:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CD
0xcdf0…772a
world · 75 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$152 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$152 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 58
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage267d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 0 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$11
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $75 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $190 −$8 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $251 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $76 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $153 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $76 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $85 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $243 −$2 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $233 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $77 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $60 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $86 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $86 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $245 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $79 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $86 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $103 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $14 +$1 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $87 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $3 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $49 −$2 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $92 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $4 $0 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $542 +$3 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $540 +$2 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $594 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $23 −$5 -22%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $85 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 11 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $135 −$1 -1%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 09 $134 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 07 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $19 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 06 $5 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Oct 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $10 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% −$16
other 27% −$134
sports 22% −$2
culture 3% $0
politics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $67 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $75 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $38 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $68 17h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $42 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $52 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $56 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $16 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $73 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $73 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $72 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $76 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $76 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $76 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $76 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $76 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $76 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $26 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 22% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 31 -0.4% -9.9% 19% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 38 -0.9% -10.3% 21% 0% -9.8%
all 75 -1.8% -11.2% 23% 0% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -12.0%
10% -19.7% 0% -20.4%
15% -27.5% 0% -28.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 294 history records