Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:11:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcded…4478 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized −$32 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day56.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$70
sports 19% +$70
other 6% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 54% -10.7%
≤30d 13 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 54% -10.7%
≤90d 13 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 54% -10.7%
all 13 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 54% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 54% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 31% -19.2%
15% -27.6% 31% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 31% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$37 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day56.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 80¢ $86 $125 +$40 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $55 +$29 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$30 -48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $109 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $223 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $80 +$14 +18%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$57 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $31 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $55 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $54 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $47 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $45 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.43 · official $125.43 (match) · 67 history records