Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdec…5102 crypto 1278 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (207 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+1%) realized +$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%1244W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day206.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$69
14 days+$107
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (207 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 530 +0.5% -9.1% 97% 3% -8.8%
≤30d 1278 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 2% -9.0%
≤90d 1278 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 2% -9.0%
all 1278 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover206.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 2% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 1% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1244 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1278 / 1278
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day206.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1278 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records