Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdec…1293 world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%19W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$4
sports 25% +$1
economics 15% $0
other 5% −$1
politics 1% $0
weather 0% −$8
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 30 -3.1% -12.4% 33% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 43 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 5% -9.4%
all 50 -3.6% -12.8% 38% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.1% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses19 / 31
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage485d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $44 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $80 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $43 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $81 −$2 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $70 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $77 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $44 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $88 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $6 −$1 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $18 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $56 +$3 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 +18%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $26 −$1 -3%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $3 +$1 +31%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $2 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $226 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $449 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $248 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $225 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 27-28°F on February 20? Mar 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 25 $4 −$1 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $44 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $10 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $29 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $39 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $0.00 · 193 history records