trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -68.7% | -71.6% | 0% | 0% | -57.4% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -13.0% | -21.3% | 11% | 11% | -17.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -13.0% | -21.3% | 11% | 11% | -17.7% |
| all | 20 | +21.0% | +9.4% | 20% | 20% | +70.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +9.4% | 20% | +70.8% |
| 10% | -1.0% | 20% | +54.5% |
| 15% | -10.6% | 20% | +39.5% |
| 20% | -19.4% | 20% | +25.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | $75 | $70 | −$5 (-6%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 14¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-19%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 14¢ | $10 | $7 | −$2 (-25%) |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? | Yes | 18¢ | 3¢ | $35 | $6 | −$29 (-82%) |
| 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-12%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 22¢ | 3¢ | $15 | $2 | −$13 (-85%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 23 | $60 | −$4 | -6% |
| Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? | Jun 23 | $52 | −$52 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | Jun 20 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET | Jun 15 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 15 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 15 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? | Jun 15 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $21 | +$121 | +589% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 13 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? | Mar 18 | $67 | −$67 | -100% |
| Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 18 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? | Mar 11 | $206 | +$315 | +153% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Mar 05 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Mar 02 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | Mar 01 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET | Feb 27 | $29 | +$27 | +93% |
| Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? | Feb 26 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | Feb 25 | $25 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24? | Feb 24 | $58 | +$521 | +899% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 24 | $17 | −$1 | -5% |