Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcde8…4060 crypto 466 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-7%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%228W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day58.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$52
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -18.3% -26.1% 45% 45% -25.8%
≤30d 465 -9.5% -18.1% 49% 48% -19.2%
≤90d 465 -9.5% -18.1% 49% 48% -19.2%
all 465 -9.5% -18.1% 49% 48% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 48% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 47% -26.9%
15% -33.1% 46% -34.0%
20% -39.7% 43% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses228 / 237
Open positions1
Markets (closed)465 / 466
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day58.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 50¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.05 · official $1.05 (match) · 954 history records