Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcde8…f207 politics 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 696d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$20
other 2% −$2
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 93 -8.2% -16.9% 3% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 1% -9.6%
10% -24.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

696d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage696d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $112 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $56 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Feb 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will Helge Grans win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Feb 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jacob deGrom win the 2025 AL Cy Young? Nov 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hoffenheim win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
US congress stock trading ban in Trump's first 100 days? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zion Williamson lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will A.J. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
TikTok banned in the US in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Justin Jefferson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon Trump? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Real Betis win La Liga? Dec 19 $0 $0 -0%
Will Damar Hamlin win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mason Graham be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Noah Fifita win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
One Trump Cabinet confirmation in January? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Scott Bessent confirmed as Treasury Secretary? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Auburn win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Nov 26 $0 $0 -5%
Will A.J. Brown be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Raj Rao announced as next BlackRock CEO? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 18 $0 $0 -8%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 18 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $55 14h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 29d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 38d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 39d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 49d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 49d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $55 50d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $55 51d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 74d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 74d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 80d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 81d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $56 92d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $56 93d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $56 101d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $48 101d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 101d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 103d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 103d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 106d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 107d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 109d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $3 110d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $6 110d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $9 110d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $9 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 212 history records