Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcde8…3e6f crypto 555 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,465 (-6%) realized −$5,465 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%256W / 298L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 148d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$8,339
sports 1% $0
other 0% −$24
finance 0% $0
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -36.7% -42.7% 27% 18% -49.7%
≤30d 116 -16.6% -24.6% 41% 34% -16.9%
≤90d 465 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 38% -16.9%
all 554 -13.0% -21.3% 46% 37% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 37% -17.7%
10% -28.8% 29% -25.5%
15% -35.7% 23% -32.7%
20% -42.0% 18% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$106 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,465
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses256 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)554 / 555
History coverage148d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 554 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $143 +$31 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$46 +436%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $404 −$387 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $326 −$47 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $156 −$83 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $176 −$172 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $349 −$203 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $486 +$57 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $223 −$149 -67%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $101 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $110 +$12 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $146 −$83 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $105 +$78 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $180 +$76 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $237 +$48 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +119%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $148 +$78 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $148 −$120 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $91 +$51 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $118 +$52 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$11 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$52 +486%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $253 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $93 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $42 34h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 32¢ $545 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $14 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $26 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $46 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $14 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $6 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $190 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2454 history records