Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcde8…ac59 crypto 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,813 (-29%) realized −$1,078 · open −$735
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%124W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$947now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days−$178
14 days−$178
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$1,478
tech 9% −$391
other 2% +$42
sports 1% −$15
world 1% +$6
economics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 50% -61.5%
≤30d 2 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 50% -61.5%
≤90d 171 -25.5% -32.6% 48% 42% -39.1%
all 230 -6.9% -15.8% 54% 48% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 48% -32.4%
10% -23.8% 43% -38.8%
15% -31.2% 35% -44.8%
20% -37.9% 26% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$947
Realized−$1,078
Unrealized−$735
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses124 / 106
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)230 / 244
History coverage123d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $1,017 $572 −$445 (-44%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $520 $212 −$308 (-59%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $44 $60 +$16 (+37%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $45 $58 +$13 (+29%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $25 $18 −$8 (-30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 33¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $300 −$185 -62%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 04 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 04 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 01 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 01 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 01 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 01 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 01 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 30 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 29 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 29 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 29 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 29 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 29 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 28 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 23 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 22 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 22 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 21 $8 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 20 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 20 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 20 $8 +$7 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 18 $3 +$5 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 17 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 55m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 56m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 57m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 58m
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $63 59m
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $115 59m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $159 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $16 33d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 33d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 33d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $83 33d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $17 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $946.83 · official $946.83 (match) · 596 history records