Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CD 0xcddd…32b0 crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$25 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%26W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$65
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$14
sports 24% −$66
other 16% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.1% -11.5% 88% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 8 -2.1% -11.5% 88% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 14 -1.1% -10.6% 93% 0% -11.5%
all 27 -0.0% -9.5% 96% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$120 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses26 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage208d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $130 +$10 +7%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $123 +$8 +6%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $110 +$8 +7%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $230 −$120 -52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $221 +$11 +5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $209 +$15 +7%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 19 $205 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 20-26? Apr 30 $205 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 23 $234 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $234 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? Apr 15 $233 +$1 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 08 $233 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 28 $233 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 18 $233 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1? Feb 06 $231 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 27 Jan 28 $230 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? Jan 27 $230 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 12-18? Jan 25 $229 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 5-11? Jan 13 $226 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $226 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 03 $206 +$20 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 15-21? Dec 25 $203 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14? Dec 16 $202 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on December 9 Dec 11 $202 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7? Dec 09 $201 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 24-30? Dec 03 $200 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $140 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $130 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $123 33h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $110 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 46¢ $110 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $230 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $0 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $60 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $21 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $98 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $42 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $209 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $200 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 April 27-May 3? BUY No 100¢ $205 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $205 61d
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $234 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $234 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $233 76d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $233 87d
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $233 97d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $233 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1? BUY No 99¢ $231 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 27 BUY No 100¢ $230 147d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? BUY No 100¢ $230 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 12-18? BUY No 99¢ $229 161d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 5-11? BUY No 99¢ $226 168d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $226 171d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 91¢ $206 180d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $203 189d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $202 194d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.24 · official $139.24 (match) · 59 history records