Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:46:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcdda…5705 politics 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$18
other 40% −$14
sports 6% +$98
economics 5% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 112 +1.4% -8.3% 3% 3% -9.5%
all 124 +1.4% -8.2% 6% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 6% -9.4%
10% -17.0% 5% -18.0%
15% -25.0% 4% -25.9%
20% -32.4% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$1 · ×29.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage113d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $225 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $263 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $217 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $283 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $286 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 22 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $260 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $284 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $247 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $291 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $241 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $228 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $444 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $254 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $253 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $210 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $272 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $269 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $210 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $206 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $237 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $260 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $221 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $204 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $228 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $206 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $486 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 8d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 11d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 11d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $203 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $203 21d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 21d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 21d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $263 21d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $263 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $217 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $217 23d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $283 25d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $283 25d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $250 25d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $250 26d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $286 26d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $286 26d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $284 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 359 history records