Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:41:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdd7…7438 politics 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%19W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$49
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$30
other 23% −$34
sports 20% −$9
crypto 9% −$7
economics 6% −$5
world 6% −$9
culture 4% −$5
tech 2% −$10
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 69 -1.1% -10.5% 6% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 145 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.0%
all 157 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses19 / 138
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage100d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 18 $54 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $161 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $35 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $220 −$2 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $179 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $564 −$6 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $59 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $122 −$2 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $218 $0 -0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $26 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $70 −$6 -9%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $649 −$2 -0%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 10 $53 −$13 -25%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $55 $0 +1%
Will Stephen A. Smith be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 09 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $96 −$1 -2%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $171 −$2 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $256 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $148 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $177 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 02 $46 $0 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $101 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $135 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $126 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $228 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $156 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $101 −$3 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $57 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $54 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $54 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $54 9h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $59 10h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $58 18h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $58 18h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 24h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 25h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 31h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $51 31h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 38h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $52 38h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $52 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $51 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $52 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $51 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 3d
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $58 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $58 3d
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $65 3d
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $65 4d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $54 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.40 · official $53.40 (match) · 698 history records