Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:07:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CD 0xcdd6…235a world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 345d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$1
other 17% +$3
politics 12% +$1
crypto 7% $0
tech 4% +$1
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 0% -9.5%
all 48 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 4% -9.0%
10% -16.2% 4% -17.7%
15% -24.3% 4% -25.7%
20% -31.7% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.31 per $1 lost it wins $6.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

345d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage345d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $88 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $49 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $45 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $5 +$2 +53%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 10 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 18 $38 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 18 $18 $0 +1%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 18 $19 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Aug 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 13 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 13 $21 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 11 $3 $0 -1%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $16 $0 -1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 09 $1 +$1 +56%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $18 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $18 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $44 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $44 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $13 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $13 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $44 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 95¢ $40 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $39 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $31 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $12 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.26 · official $43.40 (match) · 177 history records