Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdd6…279d other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%30W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$32
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$1
other 27% +$22
world 18% −$33
sports 11% −$15
tech 4% +$14
culture 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.9% -11.2% 25% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 36% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 23 +77.4% +60.5% 43% 9% -9.7%
all 83 +21.6% +10.1% 36% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 4% -9.7%
10% -0.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -10.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -18.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses30 / 53
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage447d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 84¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $132 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $16 −$1 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $405 −$32 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $228 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $148 +$3 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $147 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $43 −$5 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $149 +$3 +2%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $118 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $337 +$14 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $39 +$9 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $174 +$9 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $162 −$17 -10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $370 +$2 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $939 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $941 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $941 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $644 +$2 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,033 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $11 $0 +0%
Chiefs vs. Titans Dec 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $22 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $1 $0 -6%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $1 $0 -16%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Belinda Bencic win Wimbledon 2025? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 16 $3 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Jul 15 $3 $0 +6%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 15 $3 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $132 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $132 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $7 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $120 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $121 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $67 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $54 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $121 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $96 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $136 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $44 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $107 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $148 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $43 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $60 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $129 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $72 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $76 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $83 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $33 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 282 history records