Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcdd2…4f62 sports 337 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$474 (+1%) realized +$445 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate71%230W / 96L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$409
14 days+$501
30 days+$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$742
other 12% +$265
crypto 1% −$121
world 0% +$1
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +21.4% +9.9% 86% 71% +4.3%
≤30d 147 +15.1% +4.2% 70% 56% -2.1%
≤90d 255 +5.7% -4.4% 69% 49% -8.6%
all 326 +9.6% -0.9% 71% 48% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 48% -7.6%
10% -10.4% 30% -16.5%
15% -19.0% 21% -24.5%
20% -27.0% 14% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$37 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized+$445
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses230 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions2
Markets (closed)326 / 337
History coverage149d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $200 $229 +$29 (+14%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$13 +13%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) Jun 28 $15 +$3 +21%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekis Jun 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$5 +48%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $5 $0 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $276 +$51 +18%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 +$4 +38%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $101 −$49 -48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 −$47 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $206 +$41 +20%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$30 +147%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $215 +$9 +4%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $239 −$24 -10%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? AND Jun 26 $205 +$66 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $121 +$30 +25%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 24 $51 +$2 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $130 +$4 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AN Jun 24 $151 +$58 +38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 24 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $13 +$6 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $183 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Jordan win on Jun 23 $10 +$8 +82%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $50 +$23 +45%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026- Jun 22 $35 +$17 +48%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 +$1 +34%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 22 $81 +$29 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$35 +43%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- Jun 21 $38 +$14 +36%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $89 +$11 +12%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Wi Jun 21 $101 +$28 +28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06- Jun 21 $50 −$9 -18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $57 +$33 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $59 +$7 +12%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 19 $37 +$18 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 Jun 19 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $132 +$35 +27%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-1 Jun 17 $101 +$31 +31%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $16 +$3 +22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $12 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $4 14m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 100¢ $6 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) BUY 82¢ $15 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekis BUY 81¢ $10 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 86¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 34¢ $52 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $276 21h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 64¢ $101 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 5¢ $3 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $20 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $30 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 25h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $20 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $10 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 67¢ $20 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 96¢ $215 31h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $215 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY 83¢ $206 46h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $239 46h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 47h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.66 · official $232.66 (match) · 799 history records