Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcdce…fa11 sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$434 (-9%) realized −$423 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%33W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$20
14 days−$327
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$150
other 21% −$114
world 19% −$530
crypto 18% −$28
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -8.1% -16.8% 42% 40% -8.8%
≤30d 72 -8.3% -17.0% 42% 40% -13.2%
≤90d 82 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 39% -18.4%
all 83 -6.6% -15.5% 40% 39% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 39% -20.7%
10% -23.6% 36% -28.3%
15% -31.0% 35% -35.2%
20% -37.8% 34% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$37 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$423
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses33 / 50
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions5
Markets (closed)83 / 88
History coverage92d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $220 $209 −$11 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 11¢ 14¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$26 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$22 +216%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$42 +83%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 −$11 -5%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$3 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $61 +$56 +92%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$60 +119%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $87 +$3 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $104 +$92 +88%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 15 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$145 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $78 −$77 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$84 +165%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$71 +140%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$7 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $22 −$12 -53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $225 −$31 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 +$38 +38%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $201 +$40 +20%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $25 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$25 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $32 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $10 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $25 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $190 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 29h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 31h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $11 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.31 · official $277.31 (match) · 198 history records