Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcdcc…7c07 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$468 (+9%) realized +$468 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$835
14 days+$835
30 days+$835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$1,071
other 24% −$674
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +22.8% +11.1% 50% 50% +14.4%
≤30d 32 +22.8% +11.1% 50% 50% +14.4%
≤90d 37 +6.2% -3.9% 43% 43% +1.1%
all 42 +6.0% -4.1% 45% 43% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 43% -0.9%
10% -13.3% 43% -10.4%
15% -21.7% 40% -19.0%
20% -29.3% 38% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$98 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$468
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage278d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $110 +$65 +59%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $104 +$94 +90%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$97 -96%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$217 +213%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$69 +69%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $125 +$74 +59%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $103 −$101 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 −$101 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $111 +$86 +78%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $83 −$81 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$99 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $106 +$44 +41%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $205 +$210 +102%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$14 -14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$140 +137%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $103 +$105 +102%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$196 +194%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $203 +$161 +79%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $200 +$176 +88%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $201 −$197 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $56 +$303 +543%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $95 +$195 +206%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $110 −$16 -14%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? May 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-06? May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-11-06? May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kocaelispor vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-09? May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 29 $369 −$294 -80%
Will Club Brugge KV vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Nov 05 $200 +$336 +168%
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 04 $258 +$62 +24%
Will Turkey win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Sep 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $175 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $110 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $0 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $3 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $94 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $4 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $198 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $104 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $2 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $319 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $169 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $100 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $102 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $125 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $103 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $103 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $198 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $83 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $0 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $0 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $3 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $91 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records