Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdcb…94b2 crypto 962 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$696 (+1%) realized +$696 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate83%798W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$104
14 days+$168
30 days−$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -6.2% -15.1% 89% 3% -5.2%
≤30d 420 -7.5% -16.3% 88% 2% -6.6%
≤90d 962 -3.6% -12.8% 83% 10% -7.9%
all 962 -3.6% -12.8% 83% 10% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 10% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 9% -16.7%
15% -28.7% 8% -24.8%
20% -35.7% 8% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$47 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$696
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses798 / 164
Open positions0
Markets (closed)962 / 962
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$124
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 962 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $91 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $96 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $94 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $93 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$25 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $97 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $96 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $93 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $93 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $92 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $91 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $90 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $89 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $87 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $94 −$23 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $91 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $90 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $90 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$41 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $110 −$40 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$24 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $112 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $114 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $121 −$29 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $121 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $119 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $118 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $117 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $125 −$36 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $123 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $123 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $123 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $88 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $121 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $117 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $112 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $115 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $115 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $112 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $113 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $121 −$34 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $120 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $120 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $115 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $117 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $91 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $94 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $93 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $58 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $73 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $73 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $32 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $67 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $21 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $97 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $96 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $93 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $93 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $24 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $36 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $91 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.55 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records