Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CD
0xcdc8…cfc8
world · 32 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$9 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage480d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $5 −$1 -17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $6 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $36 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $94 +$3 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $92 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $25 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $32 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $30 $0 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $109 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $96 +$14 +14%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $255 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 16 $231 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $232 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $231 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $89 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $232 $0 -0%
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State Mar 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% +$1
politics 31% +$2
world 29% +$4
finance 4% +$14
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $29 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 15h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $4 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $5 21h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $14 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $14 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $37 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $36 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $40 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.9% -11.3% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 53% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 30 +0.6% -9.0% 47% 3% -8.8%
all 31 -2.7% -11.9% 45% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -9.2%
10% -20.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -28.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.53 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records