Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:24:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdc5…95a8 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%24W / 117L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$28
14 days−$35
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$27
other 23% −$17
sports 18% −$8
crypto 10% −$15
world 9% +$5
economics 6% −$5
culture 5% −$7
finance 3% +$1
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 69 -0.9% -10.4% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 115 -0.8% -10.3% 15% 0% -10.0%
all 141 -0.7% -10.1% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses24 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage106d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $357 −$5 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $39 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $123 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $60 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $58 −$5 -8%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 15 $122 −$2 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $60 −$2 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $84 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $391 −$3 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $44 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $46 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $101 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 07 $13 $0 -3%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $713 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $24 −$1 -3%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $61 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $45 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 02 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $51 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $346 −$2 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $115 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 53m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $44 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $44 5h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 6h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 11h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $44 11h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $45 18h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $61 19h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 23h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 23h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $17 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $59 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 27h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $53 28h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $58 32h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $38 33h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $38 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $63 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $64 46h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $24 47h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $24 2d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $60 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $62 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $62 3d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $59 3d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $59 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.63 · official $36.63 (match) · 548 history records