Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdc3…59f7 world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 22% $0
politics 17% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 5% −$2
culture 5% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 18 -1.9% -11.3% 28% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 18 -1.9% -11.3% 28% 0% -9.9%
all 51 -1.2% -10.6% 25% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage286d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $29 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $28 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $28 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $76 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $7 −$2 -30%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $67 −$2 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $2 $0 -11%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $29 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 23 $29 $0 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $25 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 14 $12 −$2 -16%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $29 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $24 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $29 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $27 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $27 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $5 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 10¢ $0 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 10¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $19 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $21 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $20 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $29 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records