Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

CD 0xcdc3…fdbe sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$22 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip

Net edge-45%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%6W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$63per market

Trades / day10.1pace

Fees−$45est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$31

7 days+$23

14 days+$23

30 days+$23

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-40.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-34.4%	-40.7%	35%	35%	-7.0%
≤30d	17	-34.4%	-40.7%	35%	35%	-7.0%
≤90d	17	-34.4%	-40.7%	35%	35%	-7.0%
all	17	-34.4%	-40.7%	35%	35%	-7.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-40.7%	35%	-7.0%
10%	-46.4%	24%	-15.9%
15%	-51.5%	18%	-24.0%
20%	-56.3%	12%	-31.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -34% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -28% → late -40% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$54 vs −$28 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.08 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$22

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses6 / 11

Est. fees paid−$45

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage7d

Avg bet$63

Trades / day10.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Team Falcons	8¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 19	$42	+$25	+59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$168	+$72	+43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$51	−$48	-95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$126	−$80	-64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$10	-92%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$84	−$60	-71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$74	+$14	+19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$126	+$27	+21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$74	−$43	-58%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$32	−$30	-95%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$11	−$10	-95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	Jun 14	$14	−$14	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 14	$116	+$178	+154%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$37	+$10	+26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 13	$21	−$1	-5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	Jun 13	$53	−$1	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	SELL Team Falcons	59¢	$67	0m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	34¢	$42	16m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	8¢	$11	42m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	39¢	$169	46m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	9¢	$11	58m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	15¢	$32	1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	26¢	$42	1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Vitality	18¢	$13	1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Vitality	13¢	$11	2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	30¢	$91	2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	16¢	$32	2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	31¢	$42	2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Vitality	53¢	$137	2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Vitality	24¢	$42	2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Vitality	38¢	$42	2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	23¢	$8	31h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	19¢	$42	31h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	8¢	$11	32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	35¢	$31	32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	43¢	$42	32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	SELL Aurora Gaming	57¢	$66	32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	33¢	$42	32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$11	3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Natus Vincere	10¢	$11	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Natus Vincere	21¢	$11	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Natus Vincere	33¢	$10	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Natus Vincere	36¢	$31	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	SELL Natus Vincere	30¢	$88	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Natus Vincere	11¢	$11	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Natus Vincere	16¢	$11	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 75 history records