Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcdc0…e6a6 sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$636 (+51%) realized +$572 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$500
other 26% +$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+55.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +71.8% +55.4% 67% 67% +83.9%
≤30d 3 +71.8% +55.4% 67% 67% +83.9%
≤90d 3 +71.8% +55.4% 67% 67% +83.9%
all 3 +71.8% +55.4% 67% 67% +83.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.4% 67% +83.9%
10% +40.6% 67% +66.3%
15% +27.0% 67% +50.3%
20% +14.5% 67% +35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +103% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt +103% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$352 vs −$78 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.04 per $1 lost it wins $9.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$596
Realized+$572
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 100¢ $135 $275 +$140 (+104%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 60¢ 56¢ $253 $238 −$15 (-6%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 15¢ 28¢ $38 $72 +$34 (+90%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ 5¢ $106 $10 −$96 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $398 +$436 +109%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $131 +$269 +206%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $80 −$78 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 60¢ $256 19m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ $46 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 15¢ $39 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $137 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $398 8h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $400 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY 40¢ $110 11h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $131 11h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $80 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.80 · official $595.86 (match) · 11 history records