Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcdbd…d0df sports 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$117 (+2%) realized +$148 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%57W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day67.4pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 53% -7.8%
≤30d 104 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 53% -7.8%
≤90d 104 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 53% -7.8%
all 104 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 53% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 53% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 51% -16.6%
15% -27.2% 43% -24.7%
20% -34.3% 35% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$38 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized+$148
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses57 / 47
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage4d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day67.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 84¢ 91¢ $98 $106 +$8 (+8%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 67¢ 40¢ $97 $58 −$39 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $98 +$22 +23%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $60 +$26 +44%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 26 $80 +$20 +24%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $18 −$16 -89%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $16 −$16 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $98 +$87 +89%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $11 +$7 +70%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 25 $116 +$72 +62%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $99 +$45 +46%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $16 +$12 +73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $21 −$21 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 25 $91 +$1 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 25 $60 −$60 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $91 −$91 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 25 $71 +$74 +104%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Jun 25 $67 +$41 +61%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $200 −$197 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 170.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 25 $98 +$80 +82%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $55 +$73 +134%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 25 $150 +$51 +34%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $18 −$18 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $98 −$24 -25%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $98 −$97 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $98 +$84 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $99 −$98 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $61 +$35 +57%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 24 $33 +$34 +101%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 24 $72 +$34 +47%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $138 +$17 +13%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $86 +$29 +34%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $41 −$2 -4%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 24 $69 +$36 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $40 +$55 +138%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $6 +$3 +50%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 24 $66 +$81 +123%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 24 $60 +$26 +44%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 70¢ $15 50m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 70¢ $37 50m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 70¢ $37 50m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 84¢ $98 1h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 100¢ $100 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 81¢ $98 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 69¢ $60 1h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 68¢ $3 1h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $6 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $9 2h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 95¢ $39 2h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 64¢ $4 2h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 70¢ $37 2h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 44¢ $2 4h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 59¢ $18 6h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $6 8h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 8h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 40¢ $7 8h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $181 21h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $188 21h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 31¢ $3 22h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 23h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $28 23h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 67¢ $16 23h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 68¢ $7 23h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ $9 23h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 62¢ $6 23h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $10 23h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $87 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.33 · official $164.33 (match) · 382 history records