Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdbc…bd73 weather 886 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$297 (+3%) realized +$267 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate66%572W / 298L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$257
14 days+$226
30 days+$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +16.9% +5.8% 68% 52% +4.8%
≤30d 515 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 60% -4.6%
≤90d 870 -1.6% -10.9% 66% 57% -7.3%
all 870 -1.6% -10.9% 66% 57% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 57% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 43% -16.2%
15% -27.2% 31% -24.3%
20% -34.4% 20% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses572 / 298
Open positions16
Markets (closed)870 / 886
History coverage53d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 870 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 23? No 66¢ 72¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? No 82¢ 79¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 22? No 59¢ 100¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 22? No 72¢ 98¢ $16 $21 +$6 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? No 73¢ 100¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? No 64¢ 81¢ $17 $21 +$5 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? No 75¢ 100¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 22? No 91¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? No 63¢ 64¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 22? No 94¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? No 69¢ 72¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? No 65¢ 62¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? No 70¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? No 72¢ 63¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? No 63¢ 48¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June 23? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 23 $15 +$8 +54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? Jun 23 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $15 +$62 +406%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 +$9 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Jun 22 $16 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 +$9 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 21? Jun 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 22 $15 +$9 +58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 22 $15 +$9 +56%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 22 $15 +$14 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 22 $15 +$9 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 21? Jun 22 $15 +$12 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? Jun 22 $30 −$6 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $30 −$8 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $16 +$7 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $16 +$8 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $14 +$9 +69%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? Jun 21 $14 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$7 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 +$15 +376%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$6 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$84 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$8 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$6 +39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 20 $14 +$6 +39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $14 +$6 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 19? Jun 20 $14 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 20 $14 +$6 +43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 20 $14 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 7¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 82¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 66¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 66¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 66¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 66¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 63¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 63¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY No 63¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 69¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 72¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 72¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 63¢ $14 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 63¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 70¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $16 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.93 · official $292.36 (match) · 2531 history records