Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdba…77f6 crypto 1089 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,841 (+3%) realized +$2,792 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%231W / 856L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day107.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$957now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$469
7 days+$1,068
14 days+$1,101
30 days+$1,101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 610 +1.4% -8.2% 35% 24% -8.5%
≤30d 1087 +0.9% -8.7% 21% 14% -8.5%
≤90d 1087 +0.9% -8.7% 21% 14% -8.5%
all 1087 +0.9% -8.7% 21% 14% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 14% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 8% -17.3%
15% -25.4% 2% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$55 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$957
Realized+$2,792
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses231 / 856
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1087 / 1089
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$92
Trades / day107.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1087 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 50¢ 96¢ $240 $461 +$221 (+92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 0¢ 52¢ $0 $247 +$247 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 0¢ 48¢ $0 $233 +$233 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 50¢ 4¢ $200 $16 −$184 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $480 +$29 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $480 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $480 −$53 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $480 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $480 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $480 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $480 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $480 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $480 −$50 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $480 −$124 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $480 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $480 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $480 +$46 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $480 +$90 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $480 −$92 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $480 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $480 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $480 −$52 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $480 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $300 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $300 +$35 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $300 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $300 +$68 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $300 −$83 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $300 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $300 −$72 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $300 −$35 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $300 +$47 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $300 −$33 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $300 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $300 −$33 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $30 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $29 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $27 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $23 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $24 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $956.80 · official $957.20 (match) · 3500 history records