Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CD 0xcdb8…e969 sports 778 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,207 (-8%) realized −$6,207 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%432W / 332L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Fees−$941est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,878
other 3% +$95
world 0% −$82
politics 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +5.7% -4.4% 67% 64% -3.4%
≤30d 277 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 51% -14.2%
≤90d 764 -9.1% -17.7% 57% 51% -11.6%
all 764 -9.1% -17.7% 57% 51% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 51% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 37% -20.1%
15% -32.8% 25% -27.8%
20% -39.4% 17% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$66 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$6,207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses432 / 332
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$941
Open positions6
Markets (closed)764 / 778
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$104
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 764 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 58¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 75¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Wimbledon WTA: Taylor Townsend vs Iga Swiatek Iga Swiatek 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Toby Samuel Jakub Mensik 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $5 +$8 +161%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $177 −$82 -46%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $14 +$9 +64%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $36 +$10 +27%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $180 +$70 +39%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $69 −$68 -99%
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-2.5) vs Ruud (+2.5) Jun 29 $12 +$29 +239%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $72 +$12 +16%
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Jun 29 $1 $0 -19%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $140 +$21 +15%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $17 +$3 +18%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 28 $171 +$28 +17%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $20 +$13 +67%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $69 +$21 +30%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $46 +$38 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $27 +$27 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $99 +$27 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $109 +$11 +10%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $25 +$10 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $38 +$7 +19%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 27 $20 +$4 +20%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 Jun 27 $100 +$19 +19%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY Jun 27 $100 +$19 +19%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 +$10 +101%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $36 +$5 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $62 +$7 +12%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $13 +$5 +41%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score AND Will Paraguay vs. A Jun 26 $1 +$4 +256%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $28 +$12 +41%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $17 +$3 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $63 +$23 +37%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $24 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $48 40m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 36¢ $46 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 56¢ $45 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 56¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 58¢ $34 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 42¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 62¢ $65 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 34¢ $28 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Taylor Townsend vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 86¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Toby Samuel BUY Jakub Mensik 70¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 72¢ $18 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $22 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 90¢ $45 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $14 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $36 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 62¢ $50 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $180 8h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 35¢ $13 9h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 13¢ $5 9h
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-2.5) vs Ruud (+2.5) SELL Hurkacz 90¢ $42 10h
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-2.5) vs Ruud (+2.5) BUY Hurkacz 26¢ $5 10h
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-2.5) vs Ruud (+2.5) BUY Hurkacz 26¢ $7 10h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play- BUY Karmine Corp 75¢ $1 11h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 100¢ $73 11h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 61¢ $3 12h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 61¢ $9 12h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 69¢ $37 12h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 36¢ $11 12h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 75¢ $19 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.35 · official $52.35 (match) · 3500 history records