Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdb7…68d4 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$88 (+4%) realized +$16 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$27
other 29% −$205
sports 27% +$349
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -46.1% -51.2% 26% 26% -7.2%
≤30d 23 -46.1% -51.2% 26% 26% -7.2%
≤90d 23 -46.1% -51.2% 26% 26% -7.2%
all 23 -46.1% -51.2% 26% 26% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.2% 26% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -55.9% 26% -16.0%
15% -60.2% 26% -24.2%
20% -64.1% 22% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$39 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 90¢ $120 $195 +$75 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $145 +$147 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $153 +$67 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $114 +$111 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $254 +$314 +124%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $252 −$127 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$51 +50%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $203 −$40 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $145 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $153 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $53 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $114 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $122 10h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 18h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 18h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 19h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $124 20h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $254 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $163 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $252 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.44 · official $482.62 · 38 history records