Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CD 0xcdb7…75f2 other 499 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$299 (-0%) realized −$292 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%249W / 245L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$297
7 days+$611
14 days+$526
30 days+$573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1,013
sports 30% +$2,317
crypto 15% +$3,655
world 4% −$2,166
tech 4% −$2,043
politics 0% −$903
finance 0% −$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +54.6% +39.9% 77% 77% +19.5%
≤30d 40 +26.7% +14.6% 62% 62% +7.8%
≤90d 133 +5.6% -4.5% 52% 52% -4.0%
all 494 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 49% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 49% -9.6%
10% -15.8% 45% -18.3%
15% -23.9% 40% -26.2%
20% -31.4% 33% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$218 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$555
Realized−$292
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses249 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions5
Markets (closed)494 / 499
History coverage476d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $204 $202 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $162 $161 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $75 $74 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $51 $48 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$25 +100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $54 +$36 +67%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $83 +$37 +45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $175 +$95 +55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $116 +$84 +72%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $97 +$19 +19%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $189 +$38 +20%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $112 +$38 +34%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $420 −$5 -1%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $16 +$14 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $7 +$27 +414%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $23 +$27 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $447 +$250 +56%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $221 −$13 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $58 +$42 +72%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $104 −$31 -30%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $52 +$43 +82%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $372 −$288 -77%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $104 +$103 +99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $218 +$70 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $105 −$86 -82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $73 −$46 -63%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $65 −$41 -64%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $74 +$35 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $59 −$58 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $34 +$66 +197%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $70 −$6 -8%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $41 +$47 +114%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $51 +$18 +36%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $54 −$10 -18%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $256 +$199 +78%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $299 −$242 -81%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $139 +$89 +64%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $43 +$37 +86%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $339 −$261 -77%
Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score May 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $131 +$69 +52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $113 −$62 -55%
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score May 17 $115 −$67 -58%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $112 +$17 +15%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 17 $102 +$20 +20%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $102 −$21 -21%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $200 +$237 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $207 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $76 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $25 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $164 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $34 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $75 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $83 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $17 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $99 30h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $0 31h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 31h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $13 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $115 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $189 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $150 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 74¢ $112 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $152 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $175 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $70 4d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 4d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $7 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $23 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $103 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $345 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $555.39 · official $555.40 (match) · 2427 history records