Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CD 0xcdb4…481d other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$554 (-4%) realized −$715 · open +$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 39L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1,792now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$416
14 days−$740
30 days+$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$390
sports 21% −$466
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -26.4% -33.4% 33% 33% -17.9%
≤30d 43 -19.4% -27.1% 30% 30% -6.5%
≤90d 52 -31.6% -38.1% 25% 25% -18.5%
all 52 -31.6% -38.1% 25% 25% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 25% -18.5%
10% -44.0% 25% -26.3%
15% -49.4% 23% -33.4%
20% -54.4% 17% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$240 vs −$106 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$1,792
Realized−$715
Unrealized+$161
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions4
Markets (closed)52 / 60
History coverage81d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $531 $598 +$66 (+13%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $300 $425 +$125 (+42%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $300 $274 −$26 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $245 +$151 +62%
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $102 +$148 +145%
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $203 +$241 +118%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $773 −$92 -12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $856 −$849 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $452 −$95 -21%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $560 +$305 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $457 +$103 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $305 +$152 +50%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 +$44 +180%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$27 -53%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $160 −$158 -99%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$242 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $447 +$185 +41%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $525 −$25 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $104 +$304 +291%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 08 $51 +$243 +473%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 07 $437 +$542 +124%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by W Jun 07 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 06 $47 −$46 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo Jun 05 $52 −$51 -97%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 05 $229 −$13 -6%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,119 +$461 +41%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $525 −$515 -98%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 28 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $202 −$202 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will J BUY 41¢ $153 41h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 27¢ $78 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $396 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $245 3d
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals AND Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY 12¢ $51 3d
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $51 3d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $250 4d
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $51 4d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $102 4d
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4d
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $49 4d
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $51 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $33 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $444 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $203 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $291 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $357 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $357 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $499 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $316 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $865 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $560 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $561 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $457 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $457 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,792.29 · official $1,793.49 (match) · 192 history records