Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdb4…b328 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$3
other 27% −$6
politics 18% −$4
finance 6% +$5
sports 4% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 16 +122.5% +101.4% 44% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 16 +122.5% +101.4% 44% 6% -9.1%
all 44 +42.1% +28.6% 45% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.6% 2% -9.9%
10% +16.3% 2% -18.5%
15% +5.0% 2% -26.4%
20% -5.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage266d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $70 +$3 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $55 +$4 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $61 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $49 −$3 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $4 −$2 -42%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $61 +$5 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $2 −$1 -52%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 19 $13 −$4 -28%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $1 $0 -10%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 07 $15 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 07 $6 −$3 -44%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $6 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $3 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? Sep 28 $1 $0 +5%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 27 $8 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $73 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $70 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $46 9h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $8 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $2 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $29 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $10 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $49 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $45 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $41 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $4 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $48 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $28 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $29 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records