Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CD
0xcdb2…0c7a
weather · 1704 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$83 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$81 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,954
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1642 / 20
Open positions40
Markets (closed)1662 / 1704
History coverage47d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 40 History 1662 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$3
14 days−$1,333
30 days−$1,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 9? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or below on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 24m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 29m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 46m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 11h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $50 11h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $8 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 490 -0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1390 -0.7% -10.1% 99% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 1662 +0.9% -8.7% 99% 1% -9.9%
all 1662 +0.9% -8.7% 99% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 1% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 1% -18.5%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,954.02 · official $1,948.18 (match) · 3436 history records