Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CD
0xcdb1…276c
world · 208 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$7,891 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,301 · open −$6,584
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57,626
Realized+$11,301
Unrealized−$6,584
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses172 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions22
Markets (closed)186 / 208
History coverage40d
Avg bet$6,414
Trades / day80.9
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 22 History 186 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$319
14 days+$2,638
30 days+$6,859
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $10,000 $17,050 +$7,050 (+70%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $6,544 $6,565 +$21 (+0%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 76¢ 79¢ $4,419 $4,605 +$185 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,896 $3,970 +$75 (+2%)
Anthropic CEO arrested? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,504 $3,521 +$17 (+0%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $3,369 $3,378 +$9 (+0%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,298 $3,307 +$9 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $10,000 $2,950 −$7,050 (-70%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $2,760 $2,775 +$15 (+1%)
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2,199 $2,217 +$17 (+1%)
Sam Altman in jail by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,462 $1,480 +$19 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,018 $1,019 +$2 (+0%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $890 $941 +$51 (+6%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 80¢ $863 $889 +$26 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $674 $679 +$5 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $644 $654 +$10 (+2%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $490 $498 +$8 (+2%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $310 $322 +$12 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $288 $275 −$14 (-5%)
Will the Centre Party (C) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 97¢ 99¢ $160 $163 +$3 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $146 $141 −$6 (-4%)
Will the Left Party (V) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 97¢ 98¢ $130 $131 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 95¢ 96¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 13 $1,770 +$128 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $54 +$1 +2%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $1,630 +$32 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $749 −$133 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1,204 +$6 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $4,224 +$30 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $3,010 +$35 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +19%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $240 +$7 +3%
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Jun 10 $847 +$35 +4%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $716 +$11 +2%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 10 $2,650 +$37 +1%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 10 $486 +$11 +2%
Will the Green Party (MP) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish Jun 10 $45 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1,749 +$2 +0%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 28? Jun 09 $315 +$6 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,007 +$21 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1,438 +$6 +0%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 08 $178 +$19 +11%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $11,477 +$23 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 06 $5,773 +$38 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 05 $7,406 +$28 +0%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $226 +$4 +2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? Jun 04 $3,108 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 22, 2026? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $53,437 +$439 +1%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 02 $152 +$1 +0%
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 02 $2,311 +$73 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2 Jun 02 $106 $0 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $2,494 $0 -0%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 02 $981 +$6 +1%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $1,714 +$13 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $789 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $9,271 +$197 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 01 $142 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $252 +$45 +18%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 01 $106 +$15 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 01 $475 +$5 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,516 +$110 +7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 01 $236 +$65 +28%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 01 $381 +$301 +79%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $154 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 01 $21 +$8 +40%
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Jun 01 $68 +$2 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 Jun 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $1,708 +$167 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 59% −$5,818
world 20% +$4,323
other 12% +$3,885
crypto 4% +$637
tech 2% +$1,503
economics 2% +$115
finance 0% +$35
sports 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $62 1h
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $62 1h
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $62 1h
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $62 1h
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $127 1h
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,948 1h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1,044 1h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 91¢ $272 2h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 2h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $397 3h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $472 3h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $310 3h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 4h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 84¢ $359 4h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 4h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 85¢ $53 5h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 5h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 5h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $344 6h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 6h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $53 6h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 7h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 7h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 7h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 7h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $580 8h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 8h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $268 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +2.0% -7.7% 96% 9% -8.9%
≤30d 154 +6.5% -3.6% 92% 19% -8.3%
≤90d 186 +6.6% -3.6% 92% 19% -7.7%
all 186 +6.6% -3.6% 92% 19% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover80.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 19% -7.7%
10% -12.8% 10% -16.6%
15% ← realistic here -21.2% 5% -24.6%
20% -28.9% 4% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57,625.87 · official $57,625.87 (match) · 3500 history records