Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:58:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdae…c02e world 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$543 (-4%) realized −$163 · open −$380
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 53L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,592
7 days+$1,039
14 days+$1,020
30 days+$1,012
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$1,623
world 22% −$73
other 12% −$311
crypto 6% −$440
politics 4% −$66
tech 1% −$31
finance 1% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -15.2% -23.2% 43% 38% -1.4%
≤30d 88 -24.6% -31.7% 40% 35% -1.7%
≤90d 88 -24.6% -31.7% 40% 35% -1.7%
all 88 -24.6% -31.7% 40% 35% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.7% 35% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -38.3% 23% -11.1%
15% -44.2% 16% -19.7%
20% -49.7% 12% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -48% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$60 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,106
Realized−$163
Unrealized−$380
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions40
Markets (closed)88 / 128
History coverage19d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $96 $78 −$18 (-19%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 59¢ 58¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 46¢ 42¢ $66 $60 −$6 (-9%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 88¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 82¢ 100¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 54¢ 80¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 50¢ 74¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 69¢ 94¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+36%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 74¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $35 $20 −$15 (-42%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 23¢ 92¢ $5 $20 +$15 (+298%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 49¢ 86¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+77%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 80¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 23¢ 72¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+215%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 86¢ 82¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,804 +$1,649 +91%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,666 +$196 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$60 -58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $55 +$11 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,111 +$39 +4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,185 +$1,432 +121%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$11 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $22 +$4 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $120 +$70 +58%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $794 +$129 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,193 −$1,077 -90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $232 +$59 +25%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$39 -76%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $20 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $30 +$7 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $755 +$198 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $90 +$19 +21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $529 −$521 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $30 −$1 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $40 −$1 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $421 −$100 -24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $131 +$14 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $951 −$440 -46%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$4 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $131 −$104 -79%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 −$47 -77%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$8 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $81 +$88 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 +$39 +129%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $218 −$90 -41%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,398 54m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 59m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $291 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $90 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $133 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $476 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $320 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $39 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,105.87 · official $1,105.91 (match) · 501 history records