Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:50:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcda9…dc6e sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$142 (-14%) realized −$141 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$20
14 days+$14
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$225
other 25% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +29.2% +16.9% 71% 71% +0.8%
≤30d 10 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 60% -7.5%
≤90d 10 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 60% -7.5%
all 24 -37.5% -43.4% 33% 33% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.4% 33% -34.2%
10% -48.9% 29% -40.5%
15% -53.8% 29% -46.2%
20% -58.3% 21% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$31 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage196d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+7%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 −$17 -34%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 +$14 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 +$5 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 +$18 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9 +$4 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$12 -59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$8 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$5 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jan 31 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 30 $155 −$155 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jan 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 29 $129 +$158 +123%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 29 $76 +$53 +69%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9INE (BO3) Jan 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Dec 14 $90 −$9 -10%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $23 −$3 -13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 12 $27 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $33 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $33 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 41h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $31 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $13 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St BUY MIBR 79¢ $10 24d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 41d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B BUY NRG 26¢ $22 143d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A BUY Astralis $25 145d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A BUY Astralis 15¢ $2 145d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A BUY Astralis 23¢ $25 145d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In BUY Liquid 10¢ $45 146d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In BUY Liquid 30¢ $32 146d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In BUY Liquid 30¢ $2 146d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In BUY Liquid 30¢ $27 146d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In BUY Liquid 52¢ $50 146d
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Eternal Fire 30¢ $28 147d
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Eternal Fire 30¢ $1 147d
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Eternal Fire 30¢ $1 147d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In BUY Astralis 48¢ $50 147d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In BUY Astralis 54¢ $50 147d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In SELL Liquid 62¢ $129 147d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In SELL Liquid 76¢ $158 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.56 · official $35.56 (match) · 60 history records