Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:58:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcda8…a884 crypto 1139 markets active 0h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$706 (-11%) realized −$706 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%513W / 625L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$765
other 1% +$5
politics 0% −$10
weather 0% −$3
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -15.6% -23.7% 44% 44% -23.6%
≤30d 274 -15.7% -23.7% 44% 44% -22.9%
≤90d 888 -34.6% -40.8% 33% 33% -34.7%
all 1138 -10.0% -18.6% 45% 43% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 43% -20.8%
10% -26.4% 41% -28.4%
15% -33.5% 38% -35.3%
20% -40.0% 36% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$706
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses513 / 625
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1138 / 1139
History coverage163d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 42¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 314 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +137%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$5 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.07 · official $0.99 · 2600 history records