Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:00:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcda7…d089 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$485 (-65%) realized −$438 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$328
14 days−$542
30 days−$542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$651
other 3% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-78.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -63.8% -67.2% 10% 10% -81.4%
≤30d 15 -75.9% -78.2% 7% 7% -87.7%
≤90d 15 -75.9% -78.2% 7% 7% -87.7%
all 15 -75.9% -78.2% 7% 7% -87.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.2% 7% -87.7%
10% -80.3% 7% -88.9%
15% -82.2% 7% -90.0%
20% -83.9% 7% -91.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$43 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$438
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 14
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage10d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 5¢ 4¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 8¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-10%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 10¢ 1¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 29 $58 −$57 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Jun 28 $85 −$83 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $24 +$62 +262%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $31 −$30 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $103 −$100 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $54 −$53 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $59 −$57 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $23 18m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 5¢ $31 19m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $4 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 10¢ $51 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 17¢ $58 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 23¢ $20 8h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 5¢ $31 8h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill BUY Felix Gill 19¢ $85 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 27¢ $24 25h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 6¢ $31 25h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $103 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $14 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 17¢ $31 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $14 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $21 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $21 8d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Alastair Gray 20¢ $13 9d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Alastair Gray 20¢ $41 9d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $59 9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.09 · official $58.09 (match) · 23 history records