Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcda6…6ea2 crypto 508 markets active 21h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$145 (-8%) realized −$141 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%220W / 286L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$146
14 days−$146
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$164
other 6% −$7
politics 5% +$10
sports 3% −$17
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 -15.3% -23.4% 40% 39% -20.4%
≤30d 504 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 43% -19.8%
≤90d 504 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 43% -19.8%
all 506 -14.8% -22.9% 43% 42% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 42% -18.3%
10% -30.3% 39% -26.1%
15% -37.0% 34% -33.2%
20% -43.2% 28% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses220 / 286
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)506 / 508
History coverage574d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +49%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +134%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +56%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +64%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 $0 -38%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -74%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$5 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$5 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 20h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 20h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $1 21h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 21h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 38h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $4 38h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 39h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 63¢ $2 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $3 40h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $2 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 42h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 42h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 44h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 47h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 28¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 28¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.68 · official $2.68 (match) · 863 history records