Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

CD 0xcda6…596d other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,414 (-61%) realized −$1,413 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%6W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$96per market

Trades / day6.7pace

Fees−$16est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$13

7 days−$1,458

14 days−$1,449

30 days−$1,449

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-16.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-9.9%	-18.5%	25%	25%	-68.8%
≤30d	22	-7.2%	-16.1%	27%	27%	-66.9%
≤90d	22	-7.2%	-16.1%	27%	27%	-66.9%
all	22	-7.2%	-16.1%	27%	27%	-66.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.1%	27%	-66.9%
10%	-24.1%	27%	-70.1%
15%	-31.4%	27%	-73.0%
20%	-38.1%	18%	-75.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +36% → late -51% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$98 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.08 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$19

Realized−$1,413

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses6 / 16

Est. fees paid−$16

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage10d

Avg bet$96

Trades / day6.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$10	$9	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	Jun 29	$331	−$13	-4%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 25	$26	−$15	-58%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 25	$9	−$9	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$10	+$5	+46%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$9	+$10	+114%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 23	$21	−$11	-53%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 23	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$15	+$20	+129%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	Jun 22	$299	−$35	-12%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran?	Jun 22	$30	−$30	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$61	−$61	-100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran?	Jun 22	$103	−$103	-100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$1,209	−$1,209	-100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	Jun 22	$10	+$61	+596%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$10	+$15	+145%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$34	−$2	-6%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	Jun 19	$24	+$11	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	SELL Yes	51¢	$177	1h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	SELL Yes	53¢	$11	1h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	SELL Yes	53¢	$110	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	1h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	31¢	$1	3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	38¢	$16	4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	SELL Yes	37¢	$11	4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$10	4d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$9	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	SELL Portugal	100¢	$20	5d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	5d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	46¢	$18	5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	46¢	$9	5d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	55¢	$66	6d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal?	SELL Yes	10¢	$10	6d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	6d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	6d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	8¢	$31	6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$15	6d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$71	6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	100¢	$25	6d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	40¢	$10	6d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	SELL Yes	46¢	$21	6d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	57¢	$22	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.71 · official $18.71 (match) · 85 history records