Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcda5…78da crypto 805 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,925 (-128%) realized −$5,914 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%74W / 726L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day42.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,901
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-54.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -46.6% -51.6% 9% 9% -59.3%
≤30d 286 -54.8% -59.1% 8% 8% -61.8%
≤90d 800 -50.1% -54.8% 9% 9% -54.6%
all 800 -50.1% -54.8% 9% 9% -54.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.8% 9% -54.6%
10% ← realistic here -59.1% 9% -58.9%
15% -63.1% 8% -62.9%
20% -66.7% 8% -66.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$4 · ×4.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$5,914
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses74 / 726
Open positions5
Markets (closed)800 / 805
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 800 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-44%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 4AM ET? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 3AM ET? Jun 16 $9 −$7 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$7 +520%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +179%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$8 +428%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +171%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 16, 2AM ET? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +334%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 1AM ET? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 16, 1AM ET? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 15, 11PM ET? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 15, 10PM ET? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 15, 10PM ET? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 4AM ET? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 4AM ET? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 4AM ET? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 9m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $0 20m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $0 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 28m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 35m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $8 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 2¢ $3 48m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.84 · official $25.84 (match) · 3500 history records