Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:56:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcda1…edb2 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (180 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$479 (-14%) realized −$292 · open −$187
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day180.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$988
sports 10% −$357
other 4% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (180 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +13.6% +2.8% 37% 37% +10.7%
≤30d 19 +13.6% +2.8% 37% 37% +10.7%
≤90d 19 +13.6% +2.8% 37% 37% +10.7%
all 19 +13.6% +2.8% 37% 37% +10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover180.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.8% 37% +10.7%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 37% +0.1%
15% -16.0% 37% -9.5%
20% -24.3% 37% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$349 vs −$147 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized−$292
Unrealized−$187
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day180.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 25¢ 28¢ $147 $167 +$20 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $210 $3 −$207 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $127 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $117 −$110 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $90 +$214 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $74 +$142 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 28 $179 −$170 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $91 −$86 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $88 +$201 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $137 +$462 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $133 −$133 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $357 −$357 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $79 +$157 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $524 +$1,103 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $308 +$167 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $423 −$400 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.50 · official $1,123.29 · 189 history records