Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcda0…a51a sports 1526 markets active 5h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 237d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$512 (-2%) realized −$422 · open −$90
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%838W / 676L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$31
14 days−$230
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$1,398
other 7% −$356
crypto 2% −$152
politics 1% +$436
economics 1% +$54
world 0% −$37
finance 0% −$20
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -8.8% -17.5% 55% 55% -12.2%
≤30d 201 +2.1% -7.6% 60% 59% -5.7%
≤90d 397 -1.2% -10.7% 60% 57% -9.3%
all 1514 -3.3% -12.6% 55% 52% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 52% -13.3%
10% -20.9% 49% -21.6%
15% -28.6% 43% -29.2%
20% -35.6% 33% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$506
Realized−$422
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses838 / 676
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1514 / 1526
History coverage238d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $400 $323 −$77 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $90 $104 +$14 (+15%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 68¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 58¢ 60¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 49¢ 16¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 57¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$11 +21%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $55 +$16 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +83%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $20 +$15 +73%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $34 +$27 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $64 −$63 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$43 -85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $72 +$53 +73%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $21 +$13 +65%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$10 +47%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 −$20 -67%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$7 +180%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$7 +146%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$5 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$33 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $51 +$35 +69%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +35%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$4 -83%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$5 +32%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $16 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 20¢ $5 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 52¢ $10 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $51 14h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 14h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $71 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 43¢ $9 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $20 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $20 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $10 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 46¢ $10 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $60 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over $2 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $33 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $34 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 69¢ $8 4d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $8 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.35 · official $516.13 · 3500 history records