Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd9f…c1a4 crypto 715 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,433 (-11%) realized −$2,433 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%297W / 415L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$379
14 days+$379
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$1,942
other 31% −$669
sports 13% +$23
politics 1% −$57
world 1% −$7
tech 0% −$7
culture 0% +$50
finance 0% −$20
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +23.5% +11.7% 65% 65% +4.0%
≤30d 147 -7.4% -16.3% 42% 40% -12.6%
≤90d 162 -8.3% -17.1% 42% 40% -12.5%
all 712 -8.6% -17.3% 42% 38% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 38% -20.6%
10% -25.3% 35% -28.2%
15% -32.5% 30% -35.1%
20% -39.1% 25% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$2,433
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses297 / 415
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)712 / 715
History coverage243d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 712 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 253 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $205 +$68 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $54 +$40 +74%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $77 +$39 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $98 −$97 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $217 +$237 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$7 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$48 +24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $366 −$364 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $195 +$81 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $318 +$75 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $131 −$124 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 06 $75 −$30 -40%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 06 $58 −$10 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $21 +$13 +63%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $281 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $70 −$46 -66%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $31 +$28 +89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $62 −$60 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $17 −$6 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $14 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $13 −$12 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $22 −$13 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $39 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9AM ET Jun 03 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $32 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $9 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $79 −$54 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $14 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $22 −$8 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 02 $9 −$6 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $81 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 89¢ $273 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $95 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $54 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 65¢ $205 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $99 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $99 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $77 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $98 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $454 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $217 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 51¢ $95 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $97 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $250 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $67 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $199 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $195 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $393 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $147 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.87 · official $378.87 (match) · 1939 history records