Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd9c…4da5 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34,907 (-14%) realized −$34,907 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate72%55W / 21L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,293per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$843est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,442
7 days−$8,435
14 days−$40,617
30 days−$46,846
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$37,787
sports 37% −$6,821
crypto 0% +$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.1% -17.7% 50% 30% -31.7%
≤30d 53 -5.9% -14.9% 66% 43% -28.4%
≤90d 76 -0.7% -10.2% 72% 47% -25.6%
all 76 -0.7% -10.2% 72% 47% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 47% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 22% -32.7%
15% -26.6% 14% -39.2%
20% -33.8% 9% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$2,648) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$335 vs −$2,988 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34,907
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses55 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$843
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage55d
Avg bet$3,293
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5,625 −$5,552 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10,163 −$3,577 -35%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8,419 −$277 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $405 +$285 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $704 +$18 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,111 +$346 +16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4,301 +$314 +7%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $203 −$150 -74%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,517 −$296 -20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,015 +$453 +45%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39,514 −$39,314 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36,082 +$2,878 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17,958 +$804 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $32,106 +$3,450 +11%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $2,683 −$2,661 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 03 $3,999 +$283 +7%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $2,407 +$253 +10%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $921 −$900 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $903 +$96 +11%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $2,648 −$208 -8%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $507 +$251 +50%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $2,723 +$298 +11%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,456 +$226 +16%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $212 +$98 +46%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $1,207 −$57 -5%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $4,049 +$544 +13%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $2,344 −$2,320 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $604 +$317 +52%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $2,152 −$89 -4%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Reci May 31 $1,006 +$241 +24%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $206 −$200 -97%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $2,600 −$2,561 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 30 $2,302 +$172 +8%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $1,649 +$362 +22%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $244 +$71 +29%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $3,829 +$181 +5%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 30 $308 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $1,437 +$202 +14%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $374 +$107 +29%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 28 $920 −$900 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $101 +$22 +22%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challenge May 28 $3,637 +$918 +25%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito De May 27 $343 −$336 -98%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 27 $1,454 +$240 +16%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $408 +$75 +18%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 27 $3,563 +$134 +4%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $1,217 +$654 +54%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Omega (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champi May 24 $206 +$36 +17%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $1,711 +$169 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $5,625 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 59¢ $5,636 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 84¢ $8,143 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 83¢ $8,143 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $8,419 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $950 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $2,020 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $405 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $722 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $704 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $2,457 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,106 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 93¢ $4,301 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $53 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $1,220 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,517 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $1,468 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $39,514 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 92¢ $36,082 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $17,176 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 87¢ $15,057 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 30¢ $1,585 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,900 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $35,556 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 95¢ $27,040 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5,065 9d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 79¢ $1,370 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 376 history records