Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd9b…9b52 crypto 1361 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,468 (+68%) realized +$17,468 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%60W / 1301L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,045
7 days−$2,126
14 days+$1,745
30 days+$18,579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$14,629
other 8% +$2,617
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +2.4% -7.3% 5% 5% -99.5%
≤30d 182 +107.7% +87.9% 10% 10% -25.2%
≤90d 1361 -7.4% -16.2% 4% 4% -62.9%
all 1361 -7.4% -16.2% 4% 4% -62.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 4% -62.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 4% -66.4%
15% -31.6% 4% -69.7%
20% -38.3% 4% -72.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +70% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -88% → late +73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$692 vs −$19 · ×37.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17,468
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses60 / 1301
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1361 / 1361
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1361 Trades
no open positions (297 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$41 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $214 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $214 −$200 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $107 −$100 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $214 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $214 −$200 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$10 +4579%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$36 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$67 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$49 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$24 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $171 −$160 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $214 −$200 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $214 −$200 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 +$29 +9252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $61 −$57 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$46 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$28 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $107 −$100 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $68 −$64 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $65 −$61 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $56 −$52 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $214 −$200 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$13 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $214 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $214 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $44 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $214 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $159 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $25 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $39 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $72 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $8 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $53 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $52 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $22 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $26 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $8 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $171 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $214 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records