Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd9b…c0ae other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$1
world 28% −$1
politics 26% −$2
sports 7% −$2
tech 4% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +43.5% +29.8% 23% 8% -9.8%
≤90d 13 +43.5% +29.8% 23% 8% -9.8%
all 54 +9.4% -1.0% 33% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 4% -10.0%
10% -10.5% 2% -18.6%
15% -19.1% 2% -26.5%
20% -27.1% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage448d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $61 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $9 $0 +4%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $85 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $39 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $3 −$1 -26%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 −$1 -56%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $44 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $20 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 12 $4 −$2 -39%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +7%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Movement Together win the most seats in the next Albanian ele May 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 03 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 30 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the n Apr 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland? Apr 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win less than 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canad Apr 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 24 $25 −$2 -7%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 04 $1 $0 -9%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $38 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $23 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $23 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 40h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 41h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $25 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $18 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $43 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $30 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $30 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $30 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $9 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $39 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $2 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $3 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $43 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.00 (match) · 178 history records