Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd98…4b39 crypto 527 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate37%194W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$57
14 days−$55
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 403 -18.4% -26.1% 34% 17% -17.2%
≤30d 524 -10.7% -19.2% 37% 22% -16.3%
≤90d 526 -10.7% -19.2% 37% 22% -16.2%
all 526 -10.7% -19.2% 37% 22% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 22% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 11% -24.2%
15% -34.0% 7% -31.5%
20% -40.4% 4% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4.071029959987812% → late -17.258127957726327% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses194 / 332
Open positions1
Markets (closed)526 / 527
History coverage36d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 50¢ 70¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 50¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 2014 history records