Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd97…8ec1 sports 787 markets active 1d ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate63%492W / 295L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$48
14 days−$59
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$72
other 13% +$5
weather 4% +$24
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -8.6% -17.3% 59% 59% -17.0%
≤30d 669 +0.4% -9.2% 64% 64% -10.8%
≤90d 787 -1.0% -10.4% 63% 62% -11.7%
all 787 -1.0% -10.4% 63% 62% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 62% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 62% -20.1%
15% -26.8% 62% -27.8%
20% -34.0% 42% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses492 / 295
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)787 / 787
History coverage33d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 787 Trades
no open positions (289 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +55%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 +$2 +44%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$3 +65%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +65%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 67¢ $5 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 70¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 2d
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 60¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 63¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 69¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $5 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $5 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $5 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $5 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1291 history records