Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:54:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd97…bee8 sports 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$928 (+60%) realized +$924 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate66%67W / 35L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$938
other 4% −$13
crypto 2% −$1
finance 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +92.5% +74.1% 100% 50% +70.8%
≤30d 41 -8.9% -17.5% 68% 34% -3.9%
≤90d 102 -10.0% -18.6% 66% 37% +45.1%
all 102 -10.0% -18.6% 66% 37% +45.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 37% +45.1%
10% -26.4% 33% +31.2%
15% -33.5% 26% +18.5%
20% -40.0% 22% +6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +60% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$11 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$924
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses67 / 35
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions6
Markets (closed)102 / 108
History coverage42d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$3 (+283%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 74¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Reyer Venezia 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 24¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +185%
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $1 $0 +32%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $7 +$3 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $2 +$3 +119%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Remy Bertola Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 05 $1 +$1 +57%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +19%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $4 +$1 +34%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $1 $0 +27%
Derthona Basket vs. Reyer Venezia May 24 $2 +$2 +79%
AEK vs. Aris BSA May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Nagasaki Velca vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Aquila Basket Trento vs. Virtus Bologna May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Pallacanestro Trieste vs. Pallacanestro Brescia May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 8PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +19%
Will AKEL win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: Brute vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi May 18 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +25%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 2PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - MPL Indon May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aurora Gaming PH vs AP.Bren (BO3) - MPL Phil May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Alter Ego vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO3) - MP May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Tora vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - MPL Mala May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 $0 +23%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 $0 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 36¢ $1 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 24¢ $1 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 39¢ $2 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 74¢ $1 1h
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic BUY Nikola Bartunkova 63¢ $1 11d
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Remy Bertola BUY Henrique Rocha 99¢ $1 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 97¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 11d
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 34¢ $1 11d
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 11d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 11d
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 98¢ $1 11d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 98¢ $1 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 11d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 100¢ $1 11d
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 96¢ $1 11d
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 94¢ $1 11d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 99¢ $1 11d
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 100¢ $1 11d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $7 11d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 55¢ $2 11d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 11d
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation BUY No 100¢ $1 11d
AEK vs. Aris BSA BUY Aris BSA 34¢ $1 23d
Nagasaki Velca vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings BUY Ryukyu Golden Kings 41¢ $1 23d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid BUY Olympiacos B.C. 78¢ $1 23d
Derthona Basket vs. Reyer Venezia BUY Derthona Basket 55¢ $2 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.09 · official $11.09 (match) · 193 history records